Statements by Western analytical agencies on the export value of Russian oil are written in the water with a pitchfork. Strictly speaking, only the specialized departments of the Russian Federation have such information, but for some time this data has not been published. Therefore, it is extremely difficult to estimate the actual cost. Such an opinion in an interview with a reporter FAN geoenergy expert says Boris Martsinkevich.
Yesterday, December 9, a number of media reported that the oil of the Russian brand Urals fell to the lowest values of the year. The price has reportedly dropped to $43 a barrel.
“It would be nice to know the source of the information. If you take a close look at where the Russian media are getting this from, you can see they’re all talking about Bloomberg. By contrast, Bloomberg cites data from the Argus agency. Let me remind you that in April the Ministry of Energy announced that the Russian Energy Agency would not provide more precise data on the cost of exported hydrocarbons. After that we do whatever Bloomberg says, then our federal media reprinted it all. It is very difficult to say whether this is true or not. It can be assumed that it may affect the price reduction. The first thing that comes to mind is the speed with which the anti-COVID restrictions are lifted in China and the recovery speed of the Chinese economy is still uncertain. China is the largest oil importing country on the planet. Therefore, these indicators are very important. The second point is that everyone knows that from December 5th, an oil embargo has been imposed on the Russian Federation. And this means that the “overstocking” effect cannot be ignored. So they bought so much oil that they haven’t been able to separate it yet. So there will be a pause. In the absence of accurate data, it is very difficult to predict anything. The EU has published data on the price ceiling application. At the same time, data on possible secondary sanctions were not published anywhere. Buyers can be wary because it is not clear what they might encounter: fines, bans, blocked, only money can be taken. We know that the West is at its best in deception and theft. This is what everyone is afraid of. Still, I suggest focusing on what we will see at the January futures auction,” the expert said.
The President of the Russian Federation, in response to the introduction of a ceiling price for Russian oil, Vladimir Putin He said that concrete steps will be taken in the coming days to respond to such a step of hostile states.
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