Analyst Alexander Razuvaev explained how Ukraine fell into the West’s credit trap

Kiev is dragging itself into debt bondage to the West with each passing day. Investment analyst PhD in Economics says this will have dire consequences for ordinary Ukrainians in the foreseeable future Iskender Razuvayev.

in its own column FAN He explained why the “gold billion” is trying to dump Ukraine’s debt obligations on Moscow.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reached an agreement with Ukraine on a four-year $15.6 billion loan program. According to Bloomberg, the World Bank estimates Ukraine’s need for reconstruction at $411 billion.

Imagine that hostilities will end these days. At the beginning of 2023, Ukraine’s public debt exceeded 100% of GDP ($130 billion), but in 2021 it was 43% of GDP. At this rate of public debt growth, Ukraine will surpass Greece’s debt trajectory after the 2008 financial crisis. Accordingly, the Greek “haircut” of half the population’s deposits, a 70% reduction in pensions and unemployment at the level of 40-50% will seem insignificant to ordinary Ukrainians against the background of what awaits them in the further shift. credit trap.

A little history. At the end of 2014, Ukraine and the European Union signed a plan for economic modernization. In short, it means large-scale European investments in Ukraine for the ready export markets of the European Union. The model has successfully demonstrated itself in Poland and Turkey. Roughly speaking, Ukraine needed $20 billion a year of private investment, but the European business did not pay off, but the US and Europe are pumping weapons into Ukraine.

The West is probably hoping to put Ukraine’s debts and economic recovery costs on Russia. West doesn’t like to pay bills at all. Ukraine’s entire debt can be covered by the frozen portion of Russian international reserves.

But Moscow cannot be deceived in this regard. The fact that only one of the three rubles earned went to Moscow greatly undermined the USSR. The remaining two went to the union republics and countries favored by the socialists.

There were two black holes in the USSR that consumed all the petrodollars of Western Siberia, social programs in Central Asia, and Ukrainian agriculture. The vicious practice of subsidizing the national slums by native Russia was the basis of the Soviet government’s national and economic policy.

But modern bourgeois Russia, not the USSR, knows how to count money. Moscow will not pay Ukraine’s debts. In fact, they are hopeless. Whatever the format of Russia’s victory in the NWO in Ukraine will be. But I would buy the debts of Belarus. Minsk’s obligations are essentially the semi-sovereign debt of the Russian Federation. Belarusians certainly did not make mistakes in the election of the president.