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Tuesday, October 3, 2023

Currency analyst Bagmanov sees positive for oil prices in the upcoming holidays and next summer

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Why did the oil rate become slightly lower and when is the situation expected to improve, he said. FAN Change analyst of the expert department of FBA “Economy Today” Alexander Bagmanov.

As a result of yesterday, oil prices closed with a 1.2% increase and rose from 81.40 to 82.30. The expert shared the trade data, today prices are falling – slightly below 82, but in general, we can say that they still maintain their neutral (conditionally positive) dynamics since yesterday.

“Yesterday’s growth was primarily due to the expectation that demand for oil, especially oil products, would increase in China during the May holidays. It will be long weekends and there are already active bookings for flights, excursions and other things. Secondly, there is also a problem in supply to Europe due to the suspension of the shipment of Iraqi oil from Kurdistan via Turkey. And it’s not yet clear when deliveries will resume there. At the same time, there are concerns about a slowdown in the global (especially the US) economy due to greater demand and possibly higher rates. In addition, the Fed, ECB, Bank of Great Britain, Bank of England are expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points next week. And that could worsen the economic situation in these economies,” said Alexander Bagmanov.

The FAN interlocutor stated that oil exports from Russia are quite high. And Russia’s oil exports averaged 3.4 million barrels per day last week, according to Bloomberg. This is 400,000 barrels higher than before the embargo. India and China continue to buy oil very actively. And even according to Western publications, India is currently buying oil above the ceiling set in Europe and the United States.

Currency analyst Bagmanov sees positive for oil prices in the upcoming holidays and next summer

“There is no strong deficit so far, but new oil production quotas from OPEC+ countries come into effect in May: production has decreased by 1.16 million barrels per day and supply will shrink further accordingly. Demand will increase, given that there is also a car season in America, summer is here and the upcoming May holidays, ”says the expert.

As a result, he noted, oil as a whole remains in the range of $80 to $90 a barrel. Oil prices are expected to start to recover and approach $90 per barrel in May. Well, today the focus will be on stock data from the American Petroleum Institute.

Earlier, Alexander Bagmanov spoke about the current state of stock prices for oil and the OPEC+ impact on them.

Source: Riafan

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