The International Monetary Fund improves our country’s GDP estimates for 2023 and 2024 to 1.1%. But he warns: the economy will only get a bigger boost if the National Recovery Plan is effectively implemented. There are many potential risks: from inflation to high debt, for which a credible plan is proposed to reduce them in the short term
Italy’s economic growth goes hand in hand with the implementation of the National Recovery Plan. Certainly from 2025, when our country will have to spend the largest share of European funds. This is being recalled by the International Monetary Fund, which is raising its estimates of our gross domestic product for this year and next from 0.7 to 1.1 percent, predicting an acceleration in two years thanks to the impetus from the Pnrr.
Clouds on the horizon
However, there are risks, the Washington Institute points out, citing as variables not only global financial and political tensions, but also the recovery plan itself, as delays in receiving payments from Brussels or a deadlock in their implementation would slow down our economy. On the other hand, full and timely use of resources would give us greater speed and energy security and enable us to better combat climate change.
Inflation still high long
As possible clouds on the horizon, the IMF also cites inflation, which is expected to fall to 2 percent in 2026 alone, and further rate tightening by the European Central Bank, which would make it more difficult due to an increase in the cost of money. can make for our country to finance itself on the markets. A circumstance that would weigh even more on our already high national debt.
Heavy debts, need reduction
In this area, the experts advise Rome on a credible plan to reduce the ballast, worth more than 140 percent of GDP, with a clear fiscal framework and spending prudence, proposing, for example, to intervene on pensions by abolishing early retirements.
Source: TG 24 Sky
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