News from the battlefield: Russia takes advantage of the arrival of Ukrainian “newcomers” in Bakhmut

Looking at the map, as well as the reports of the Russian Ministry of Defense (with a clear motivation not to frighten the relatives of the mobilized), one gives the impression that the situation on the fronts in Ukraine has more or less stabilized. It seems that there is no major conflict, only missile attacks and artillery duels.

When it comes to Russian news, of course, Russian achievements in various fields are interspersed. However, the war actually continues with great intensity and losses on both sides.

And this despite the fact that the weather is not very favorable for combat operations from certain angles. After a relatively cold start to December, it is visibly warming in Ukraine (and will likely get even warmer in the coming days). Even where the autumn mud is enough to freeze, the land will collapse again, the ditches will fill with water again and it will be difficult for heavy machinery to move, especially outside of paved roads. This affects how the battle is fought, but as mentioned, the weather did not interrupt the battle.

On the northern front, activity continues mainly on the side of the Ukrainian army. But Russian commanders do not think only of defense. According to some information from the Russian side, the commanders of the Russian troops still do not believe in the poorly prepared defensive positions and are attempting an active defense with numerous counterattacks.

In the last few days, such an attempt has been made, for example, in Blackbird. In this area, Ukrainian troops gradually repulsed Russian forces from the north-south direction of the main ridge, providing advantageous positions for defense and the eventual development of an eastward offensive.

However, the Russian command deployed motorized units here, supported by men mobilized on a relatively wide front. In a single day, they were able to push the Ukrainian troops back several kilometers, in some cases depriving them of positions they had occupied for weeks.

Success did not last long. The Russian troops were unable to strengthen and hold their positions and within a few days lost all their gains. So, according to recent reports, Ukrainian troops are re-developing their operations directly from Chervonopivka and the adjacent hills, but it is not entirely clear (or at least not clear) whether they really control the village or whether it is “nobody’s land” based on the data it has seen and read. to the author of the lines).

In recent weeks there has been a similar ‘tug-pull’ in some places on this part of the front. Neither side has a well-prepared position in the region. For this reason, troops only mount where they have some degree of protection against artillery; ie points such as villages, forests, high points. But even there the positions are not the strongest, so when it comes to a stronger attack there is usually no choice but to abandon them.

Russia is building fortifications in the region, but most of them are being prepared behind the existing front line, apparently as a safeguard against a possible Ukraine advance. However, according to observers and analysts, this will not be easy. Due to the arrival of newly mobilized and troops from Kherson, the Russian defense was relatively densely occupied.

Ukraine’s efforts in the region to date have tended to seek weak points in the Russian defense and minor attacks. According to some (clearly anonymous and unconfirmed) information received from the Ukrainian military, this is the main target of Ukraine’s efforts at the moment and no major attack is (yet) planned. The losses are claimed to be enormous.

Exactly in the area around Červonopopivka, and even further south, the Ukrainian bypass of Kreminna gradually becomes more precise. This village is a very advantageous defensive position for Russian forces, which the Ukrainian command is unlikely to attempt to seize directly. The aim would most likely be to force the city to retreat from the north (this might just be east from Chervonopivka) and also possibly from the south, through the vast forest, interrupting the Russian forces’ supply. southwest of Kreminna.

The main target of the efforts of the Russian armed forces remains the city of Bakhmut. Let me remind you that Russian troops tried to enter the city several times. As in the north, the front also moves in two directions.

In the autumn, for example, Russian troops had to abandon their positions directly in Bakhmut after a series of Ukrainian counterattacks. Recently, however, they have been trying to get back into the city and have apparently taken over part of the city (more on that later).

The main character of the development in the region is, above all, Russia’s persistent and determined progress. Russian forces are methodically destroying Ukraine’s defensive positions, primarily using artillery, until they are largely destroyed. Defenders often have no choice but to retreat. Russia’s slow progress is captured on the map below, which shows their situation from August 1 (purple) to December 12 (dark red).

It also shows that the Russians tried to establish a stronger starting position in the south (and were less successful in the north) to threaten the supply of the city’s defenders. So far these efforts have not been successful, but Russia’s efforts are not giving up yet. For example, Russia failed to capture the village of Yakovlivka, northeast of the city, about which we have written recently, and which apparently represents a significant part of Bakhmut’s northern defense.

On the contrary, the efforts of the invaders have intensified in recent days. Perhaps it was about the regular and necessary rotation (rotation) of Ukrainian troops in the region. The 93rd Brigade, which was among the best units of the regular Ukrainian army, withdrew from the front. The units that replaced him were unable to sustain the defense on 12 and 13 December.

Thus, the Russian forces advanced considerably by the standards of the front and, among other things, once again reached the housing estate in the east of the city. According to the latest news, they only occupied a few blocks, but even these were welcomed by Russian military bloggers.

In connection with this Russian success, and possibly the rotation of the 93rd Brigade, there was talk of a possible evacuation of Bakhmut, or at least part of it, of Ukraine. Of course it may be true, but the claim has yet to be confirmed by anything.

This does not mean that the situation is not dangerous for Ukrainian forces in the region. Russia does not give the Ukrainian defenders time to rest and change, and carries out several attacks a day. Also, according to available testimonies, he still has artillery superiority in Bachmut.

Only infantry and artillery battles take place in the region. Russian troops are advancing in small groups of 15-20 people according to the maps and plans prepared in advance from above. If they hit the enemy and reveal their positions, artillery will follow. Heavy military equipment primarily acts as a magnet for artillery; after all, it will also be difficult to move in very muddy and bullet-trapped terrain.

There is also no sign that the “Ukrainian Verdun” will end anytime soon. On the contrary, according to information not officially confirmed by the Russian, reinforcements were moved to the area. If this is true, the conflict around Bakhmut will likely continue with a similar intensity at the beginning of the year, despite high losses on the Russian side (and significant losses on the Ukrainian side, according to all sources). before.

There were clashes in the rest of the Donetsk region as well, albeit less intensely, which did not bring any change to the front line. However, the main role in this part was played by artillery, and on the Russian side by the air force. And so, for example, the Russian effort to encircle Avdijivka near Donetsk did not make any progress.

But recently, the offensive in Pavlivka and Vuhledar, whose autumn phase we described a few weeks ago, has stalled.

Russian forces in the Zaporozhye region are preparing for Ukraine’s long-awaited attack on Melitopol, according to some observers. This could put the Kerch Bridge within range of the HIMARS systems, thereby further complicating the peninsula’s resupply for the Russian side. For this reason, the Russians are building defensive positions in the region to stop a possible Ukrainian attack.

According to available information, the Ukrainian command gathered new troops in the region. But we don’t have a precise idea of ​​how large this group is and whether it would really be sufficient for such a task. For now, this may be nothing more than an attempt to “pull” part of the Russian forces from other parts of the front.

Even considering that relatively warm weather (and thus mud) is expected in the coming weeks, an attack cannot be expected in the near future. The terrain in the area is very open and flat, and therefore the attack will likely have to withstand the deployment of mechanized units that are not suitable for such conditions.

However, rocket and artillery attacks continue on Russian command posts, ammunition stockpiles and other targets in the region. Special forces or partisans also operate in the Russian rear.

There is relative calm in the Kherson area. It seems that small detachments of one and the other side landed in the areas off the coast of the enemy or on the islands in the Dnieper, but these were not militarily significant actions.