“The goal is push Ukraine to run out of bullets before Russia runs out of soldiers available”. The statement was made by the German expert Gustav Gressel, who was pronounced in conspiracy the future scenario of the conflict following the mobilization announced by the Kremlin.

Moscow will have hundreds of thousands of men at its disposal and will have to prepare them. Many are not supposed to be of quality, but recruiters may not be in a hurry. The program – as a report from the British Rusi Institute also points out – is from arriving in winter with a reorganized contingent. And the amount is important. Ukrainians need more troops to conduct operations – recent successes have been achieved when they had numerical advantage -; sufficient supplies and reinforcements will be needed; they will also need to create units to be launched in the field (multinational training programs are underway in the UK and elsewhere). Gressel always points out that the most precise weapons can stop the large “masses”for the resistance it will not be easy anyway. It is a direct judgment that invites us not to lull ourselves into complacency after the military’s recent defeats. The same warning from Rusi and, if you will, the same advice from the Pentagon.

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The new czar – observers repeat it – wants to extend the conflict well beyond next winter, surpassing 2023. It bets on the erosion of the enemy, it bets on political problems in the West, will seek to exploit diplomatic and social tensions in donor countries. He hopes the flow of war aid will meet resistance, in fact Moscow leaders have reiterated in these hours that the use of NATO systems increases the risks of global confrontation. There is a good dose of propaganda, but it finds support in the extreme caution of the White House when sending ammunition at a range of 300 kilometers, all fighters and tanks. An indecision criticized by those in Washington who insist on giving Zelensky what he emphatically asks. An indication could come from the allied summit scheduled for 28 in Brussels and dedicated to future aid planning (stocks, spare parts, vehicles, production). The key word is “long term”.

Don’t forget the phalanx of commentators and experts the list of weaknesses for the invaders. Lack of officers and NCOs, insufficient and rigid commands, low coherence and efficiency of the battalions, available material, the morale of infantry forced to go to the front, ability to feed a giant device when the supply lines may not be enough or to get hit. Chronic, almost historical knots mixed with more recent. As confirmation of this came the announcement of a new change: General Dmitri Bulgakov, Deputy Minister of Defense and maximally responsible for logistics, leave the command! also Mikhail Mizintsev. Which, based on what we’ve seen in recent months, will do a lot of work to arm the recruits, operate the tanks, repair the battle-worn vehicles and regenerate the vehicles taken from the depots.

Especially – if the rumors are true – it will have to respect the stipulations of the political leaders. After the revelations of the cnn,
expected yesterday, the details of the New York Times. US sources reiterate that: Putin interfered in leading the campaign by opposing a retreat in the Kherson region, a decision that costs losses and is motivated by the need not to endure the humiliation suffered in Kharkov. The leader would then establish direct contacts with the regional commanders since he did not trust the submitted reports by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valerij Gerasimov. In the article we talk about the doubts of the hierarchs in the offensive against Kiev, but also of false reports about the status of the troops. A series of factors that would have created tensions in a device not ready for the mission. Now Putin is trying again by using what is possible.