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They had already deleted it. A devastating inflation is raging in his country, which cannot be tamed either because of his amateur dictates. Attacks on perceived and real enemies showed signs of a dying predator’s final struggles. In addition to this, the media took pleasure in feeding rumors about his ailments. Confused, sometimes even surprising, videos of politicians only helped them.

In other words, the political future of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan seemed very uncertain even at the beginning of this year. Moreover, because in the presidential preference poll conducted in January ousted the leader of the main opposition party. Turkey has not lived for years.

But then February came, and with it the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which poured living water to the 68-year-old sultan. He distinguished himself as a talented businessman from the eastern market, who knew exactly how far to go in negotiations with partners and how to make money from the war.

Erdogan has effectively become the only mediator between Ukraine and Russia, to which both countries listen without grin and attention. At the same time, France, for example, aspired to a similar position. Or Israel. unsuccessfully. Erdogan’s position is unique in that he not only acts but also actively trades with Moscow and Kyiv.

It was he who helped negotiate the release of Ukrainian prisoners in the Kremlin, including the fighters of the famous Azov regiment, which in the mouths of Russian propagandists was synonymous with a group of Nazis. Moreover, Turkey is currently home to five Kyiv commanders because Moscow refused to allow them to return to their homes, which they were told would only be allowed after the occupation was over.

The same Erdogan, in a phone call with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin about a week ago, praised the growth of bilateral trade, which has increased by tens of percent since the start of the war. Primarily because Turkey, as the sole member of NATO, did not accept the sanctions against Moscow. Not to mention that Rosatom continues to build Turkey’s first nuclear power plant, with sparrows on Ankara’s rooftops chirping that it would win the tender for the latter.

The Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine also showed who actually ruled the Black Sea. When the Turkish president negotiated an agreement to export Ukrainian grain to world ports with the help of the UN, and not vice versa, Russia first agreed, but later withdrew from the agreement with appropriate fanfare. He felt the potential for blackmail because his fleet would probably be able to truly isolate Ukraine at sea.

Confident Turkey, however, ignored the Kremlin’s threats and continued to export grain. Also thanks to the strength of his own navy. Within days, the Russians meekly returned to agreement. Although it is not clear which negotiations were held behind the scenes, from the outside, this event seems like a complete disgrace for Moscow.

Today’s Turkey also deftly exploits the dissatisfaction of the post-Soviet republics with an expanding Russia and Beijing’s mild disdain for the economically and militarily incompetent Kremlin. Shortly after the invasion began, new ideas arose about a rail route that would connect China with Europe. Even a cursory glance at the map shows the purpose of the project – an effort to avoid unstable Russia. It is no accident that the desired route passes through Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Georgia, that is, through the states of the former Soviet Union, which are trying to get away from Moscow as soon as possible.

In addition to Erdogan’s victories, his troops have been attacking Kurdish bases in Iraq and Syria, a de facto Russian protectorate, with complete impunity in recent days. Moscow’s reaction? The Kremlin asks Erdogan for restraint. The United States expressed itself in a similar spirit. The Turkish leader responded with the thought of a ground operation directly on Syrian territory…

It is not surprising, therefore, that Erdogan’s preferences will rise again ahead of next year’s presidential election. Little is heard of the opposition, as some do not know which side to take when considering the Russian invasion.

In any case, Erdogan is now running like a steamroller and there seems to be no force that can stop him. Moreover, because the opposition is still looking for its charismatic leader. Therefore, a power cynic with an indomitable desire for power should thank Moscow. Because it was his invasion that brought him back to global fame. But if Erdogan has enough geopolitical prudence, which few doubt, he will try to weaken Russia as much as possible. Which is in Europe’s interest.