Before six in the morning, a foreign plane passed very close to Taiwan. In the last 24 hours, it was the 57th unsolicited aircraft of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Four Chinese warships simultaneously passed through disputed waters.

Beijing confirmed over the weekend that it has begun joint naval and air force combat exercises.

According to Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense, about three dozen aircraft are blocking three sides of the autonomous island. Twenty-three aircraft, including 12 J-16 fighters, two Sukhoi Su-30 fighters, two J-10s, six J-11s and a KJ early warning aircraft, crossed the midline, the de facto boundary separating the Taiwan Strait. island from the mainland. -500.

Two H-6 bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons and three BZK-005 reconnaissance aircraft also entered the southeast identification zone of Taiwan’s air defense.

The Taiwan Presidential office condemned the maneuvers and reminded that both sides of the Taiwan Strait share responsibility for maintaining peace and stability in the region.

Colonel Shi Ji, spokesman for the People’s Liberation Army Command Eastern Command System, said that the purpose of the exercise is to “test their joint warfare capabilities, and also to resolutely counter the provocative actions of foreign powers and separatist forces seeking Taiwan’s independence”, according to Beijing. .

For the second time in less than a month, ČLOA conducted an intense exercise near the island. At the end of December, a record 71 fighter jets and four ships raced around the island.

With the new year, fears that a war will one day break out over Taiwan have come true. The independent Washington think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has conducted one of the most detailed war simulations, revealing a set of findings processed by the American CNN presenter.

A so-called wargame (wargame) is, according to NATO’s definition, “the simulation of a military operation involving two or more opposing forces by any means, using rules, data and procedures aimed at representing a real or assumed real situation”.

According to the results of a simulation run by CSIS, China’s invasion of Taiwan in 2026 will require thousands of casualties among Chinese, American, Taiwanese and Japanese soldiers. Even though Beijing would lose the war for Taiwan, the American military would also end up dishonorably.

The center’s analysts have developed more than two dozen battle scenarios; It is a comprehensive and transparent account of how a conflict in the Taiwan Strait could end up. Eventually, at least two US aircraft carriers would lie at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean, and the modern Chinese navy, the largest in the world, would be “disheveled”.

According to its makers themselves, this is the first war game to address the potential conflict between the US and China to such a degree. Through simulation, CSIS came very close to answering two fundamental questions: Would the invasion be successful? At what price?

In short – the invasion “will not succeed” according to CSIS and the cost will be “enormous”.

“The United States and Japan will lose dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft and thousands of military personnel. “Such losses will damage the global reputation of the United States for years,” the report said.

In most scenarios, the US Navy will lose two aircraft carriers and 10 to 20 large surface warships.

About 3,200 US soldiers will be killed in the three-week conflict, which is almost half what the US lost in the two decades of war in Iraq and Afghanistan.

“China will also suffer a lot. His navy would be in ruins, the core of his amphibious forces would be shattered, and tens of thousands of soldiers would be prisoners of war.”

The report estimates that China will lose about 10,000 troops and lose 155 warplanes and 138 large ships.

And how does Taiwan itself succeed? Although a Chinese invasion fails, the island’s scenario draws a bleak future.

“The Taiwanese military will be severely affected and will have to defend the damaged economy on an island without electricity and basic services,” the report said.

It would inflict about 3,500 casualties and all 26 destroyers and frigates of the Navy would be sunk.

The damage will also be added to Japan, which will lose more than 100 warplanes and 26 warships. China may also attack US military bases on its territory.

But despite all this, CSIS adds that its research does not suggest that war is “inevitable or even likely” for Taiwan. “The Chinese leadership may adopt a strategy of diplomatic isolation, gray zone pressure or economic pressure against Taiwan,” the report warned.

The democratically administered island of 24 million people is claimed as part of its sovereign territory, although it has never been controlled by the Chinese Communist Party. Chinese leader Xi Jinping is not sure he will one day take the island by force.

China and the United States have managed to avoid the Taiwan disaster for 70 years. However, there is a growing consensus in American political circles that peace may not last long. Many analysts and politicians say that the United States should use all its military power and prepare for war with China in the Taiwan Strait.

In October 2022, the head of the US Navy, Mike Gilday, warned that China could prepare to invade Taiwan before 2024.

However, not everyone agrees with him. For example, Dan Grazier, senior defense policy expert at Project on Government Oversight (POGO), considers a direct Chinese invasion of Taiwan highly unlikely. Grazier told CNN that such a military operation would immediately disrupt the imports and exports on which the Chinese economy depends, and would be tantamount to the collapse of the Chinese economy.

Under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, the United States formally committed to “maintain and develop extensive, close and friendly commercial, cultural, and other relations” with Taiwan and to provide “weapons for defense” to the island.

On the other hand, with regard to Beijing, they declare that they do not support Taiwan’s independence, which is included in the US national security strategy from 2022.

In the 1970s, the goal was to create space for Beijing and Taipei to delay the conflict indefinitely or reach some kind of political solution.

This approach has worked well for decades, thanks to three factors, the Foreign Affairs website has analyzed.

First: The United States has maintained a great lead over China in terms of military strength, deterring Beijing from using conventional force to fundamentally change Taiwan-China relations.

Second: China focused primarily on its own economic development and integration with the world economy, so the Taiwan issue remained in the background.

Third: The United States has been successful in addressing the challenges that threaten stability in the Straits, whether on the Taipei or Beijing side.

However, within a decade, all three factors have improved significantly and US-China relations are on the brink of crisis. But the State Department warns that a direct confrontation between the United States and China would wreak havoc for generations.