Seismologists have long referred to Turkey as a region where earthquakes are common. Yet they cannot predict exactly when such a devastating disaster will occur in the region. On the 5:59 podcast with seismologist Aleš Špičák, we’re not just talking about why this is the case.

At least five thousand dead and thousands of buildings were destroyed in ten provinces. An earthquake on the border between Syria and Turkey could result in disaster. According to experts, earthquakes can be expected there, this is a very interesting region tectonically.

Listen to the full Wednesday 5:59 podcast in the player:

For decades there was friction between the blocks, but at the moment of breakage, the plates were “glued” together and began to bend. Gradually, the boulder blocks reached a point where they had to flatten.

“They were launched and moved very quickly, depending on the area, in this case about four meters at a time,” Špičák said. And on the surface, the activity of the rocks was manifested by a devastating earthquake. At the same time, no impulse is needed to reach the breaking point, the plates are not able to withstand the accumulated stress over the years.

The strong aftershock that hit the border area about eight hours later was also unexpected. Moreover, he had a different turning point than in the first case. “It was a big surprise. It’s not common,” says the seismologist.

However, Japan, for example, had to deal with a similar phenomenon in 2011. The earthquake and the ensuing tsunami damaged the Fukushima nuclear power plant.

Although seismologists know where similar disasters are at risk, earthquakes of similar magnitude cannot be accurately predicted, even after decades of research.

“But what is moving forward is the so-called early warning system,” Špičák continues. So, for example, seismic stations in the ocean off the coast of Japan can send text messages to people counting down to the impact of a wave, stopping elevators in a city, or slowing high-speed trains. But such measures cost money, which is not available in poor areas, and even a weaker earthquake can cause enormous damage in such cases.

In the podcast, you’ll also learn how fundamental the government and municipal governments’ approach to earthquake risk is, and whether science can predict similar disasters in the future. Listen to the audio at the beginning of the article.