After a month of severe quarantine, the curve for those infected in Shanghai has finally started to fall. The Chinese government’s attention thus shifted to the north. Beijing is now really nervous where the government has declared mass testing after several positive cases. A similar move in the Shanghai case heralded the complete closure of the city.

Economists are also sounding the alarm. The effects of China’s brutal zero-tolerance policy will be felt by supply chains around the world.

Beijing launched a major three-day covid test on Monday and apologized to the nearly two million people living in less populated suburbs. Roughly 20 million more tests will not escape, and they are certainly not those who live or work in Chaoyang’s main business district.

It was the Chaoyang district, which included a number of embassies and foreign companies, that became the epicenter of Beijing with 42 infected. Tests across the city have revealed 114 cases since Friday. On Wednesday, the Chongzhou government district advised parents not to send their children to school until further notice.

While the situation in Beijing is more moderate compared to other parts of China, the capital is on high alert due to the upcoming Communist Party National Congress.

Given the strength of the response to dozens of infected people, there is no doubt that China has no intention of easing its zero-tolerance strategy. After a few cases, millions of cities are closing, including those that are absolutely crucial to the economies of China and the world.

Shops in Beijing have suffered a similar attack since Monday in Shanghai, Wuchan or Hong Kong, although officials insist there is no need to panic.

Joseph Li, 25, and his roommates in the Chaoyang district set out to expedite the purchase of frozen and fresh food, which they learned from videos of hungry Shanghai residents. They prepared provisions for at least four days. But so far they are relatively optimistic.

“If the quarantine really comes, I think the government, society and community will support us with deliveries,” Li told SCMP. “I will only go into my own stock if we run out of packages or don’t get the necessary things. Stocks are only available for emergencies,” he adds.

People from Shanghai can talk about relying on government aid. The list is combined with Czech Jana, who previously lived in the city for a long time. He said hungry people often call for help from their balconies, and then drones warn them not to “sing”.

“For example, I stay up until midnight every day because delivery services have a limited number of orders to process each day, and the number resets at midnight. However, the fifth day in a row, even two minutes after midnight, it seems ‘run out’ to me. Other people ordering He gets up at 5 a.m. to deliver. But the system is overloaded, only the minimum order is processed,” he said.

The Chinese government is trying in every possible way to prevent the spread of the infection from neighboring countries. Among other things, it is based on the abilities of animals – about 500 geese have been placed on the border with Vietnam, ready to detect and possibly pinch anyone who tries to cross the border illegally. The Goose Army has been deployed since last October and is considered a successful fighter against virus carriers from abroad. It does not require any special training. National Geographic writes that the five-pound birds fiercely defend their territory.

The furry crew is complemented by around 400 mixed breed guard dogs accompanying the laundresses. Geese have their own habitat. According to a recent study, geese are the oldest domesticated animals after dogs.

Two years after the outbreak of the epidemic, doubts still exist about China’s method of counting coronavirus-related deaths.

Shanghai is China’s largest city and currently the largest epicenter of covid-19. As of March 1, the CFR recorded 0.036 percent – ​​36 deaths per 100,000 infected people. Such a death rate is low even compared to countries lauded around the world for fighting an exemplary epidemic.

“If Shanghai had a CFR similar to 0.07 percent of New Zealand, then there would be over 300 deaths,” Michael Baker, professor of public health at the University of Otago in New Zealand, told AFP. .

Although about 200,000 people lived with symptomatic symptoms and more than 470,000 people without symptoms, less than 5,000 people succumbed to the virus.

One explanation for the Chinese data may be a stricter classification of “covid-related deaths,” Paul Tambyah, president of the Asia-Pacific Society for Clinical Microbiology and Infections, told AFP.

The Chinese health commission said it counted people infected with the virus who died before recovering from Covid-19. This leaves open the possibility that patients with pre-existing health problems are not taken into account in the total number of deaths.

According to the Chinese government, the low numbers are proof that tighter access to the coronavirus is working. According to experts, these data do not tell the whole story. The Chinese public was outraged recently by a leaked record of controversy between health officials. “This pandemic has become a political issue that consumes a lot of manpower, resources and money to deal with a flu-like disease. What other country do you think is now seeking similar epidemic prevention?” the official asked in the recording.

The answer to your question is “none”. Even the most autocratic states with surveillance networks and mechanisms to control society do not implement a zero-bullet strategy as China does.

The prospect of another major city being quarantined is causing concern in economic circles, particularly among investors and companies whose supply chains are crossing China. Since mid-March, more than 70 cities, representing 40% of the national economic power, have implemented anti-drug measures.

Elisabeth Waelbroeck-Rocha, chief international economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said that in addition to disrupting global supply chains and supporting inflation, covid restrictions are undermining China’s economic growth.

China aims to increase its gross domestic product by 5.5 percent by 2022, which the economist says is unattainable under these conditions. The Chinese authorities are trying to at least keep the factories and especially the ports afloat by working in “closed balloons”. So they practically live in the workplace and interact with a minimum of people.

Despite this, delivery times are being extended to many global companies that depend on Chinese factories. Analysts predict that the Shanghai quarantine will create a domino effect. According to them, the automotive and consumer electronics sector will also intervene in June and July.

“Congestion in Chinese ports indicates that global shipping delays will likely continue through 2022, even if they remain below the 2021 high,” said Francoise Huang, chief economist at Allianz Trade.

BBVA Research chief economist Tung Jinjue said that Shanghai’s quarantine itself means “an inevitable negative side effect on the entire economy and supply chain disruption at home and abroad.”

Redirecting products from Shanghai to the ports of Suzhou and Yangzhou in Jiangsu Province will delay the import of materials such as plastic hooks from Swiss hangers. Stricter management is also responsible for delays.