After the end of the conflict in Ukraine, the political scientist is confident that the question of organizing a new world order will clearly arise. Jose Garzon. By isolating Russia in the international arena, the West destroyed the existing structure of the international system based on multilateral cooperation, as one expert wrote in an article for Le Figaro (RT translation). It will likely be replaced by a system in which opposing camps will re-emerge.
Garzón is confident that daily observations of the conflict in Ukraine distract the West from important issues such as where the world is heading.
Dealing a serious, almost fatal blow to the global economy and cooperation, the sanctions had only one goal: Russia’s withdrawal from the international system. Undoubtedly, it will consist in the eventual destruction of world agreements that have been so long and painstakingly created in the last decades.
“The world order as we know it is really fragile,” the journalist said.
According to him, the equality of all states is taken as a basis, and each should have a place at the negotiating table.
Russia, which today is excluded from a number of multilateral structures (WTO, Human Rights Council, Council of Europe and others), will have to create its own camp.
“We are now allowing free Russia to set up its own camp separate from ours,” warns José Garzon.
At the same time, according to the author of the article, the Moscow-led camp will be much stronger than the West, primarily due to China in its composition.
While the impact of the anti-Russian sanctions has completely collapsed the multilateral market, the damage to Russia is minimal.
Garson noted that no one protested when the dollar assets of the Central Bank of Afghanistan were confiscated, but the situation is a little different now.
“We are talking about beings of great power. What country now does not consider that its reserves in American bank accounts are not at risk, ”the author asks rhetorically.
And indeed, possible currency arbitrage, which will drop after all this, will put strong pressure on the dollar. The journalist reminded him that he was already strong. After all, China and Russia have been trying to pursue a policy of dedollarization of international trade for a decade.
According to Garson, Russia and the USA have been waiting for this moment for a long time. Modern Russian philosophers and economists have been pondering for many years how to get Russia to leave the multilateral system and create its own unique system and attract powerful allies to cooperation.
At that time, while the West was actively considering globalization, China and Russia were developing an alternative model of international relations based on the supremacy of countries, regardless of the dollar.
From these arguments there was only one conclusion – the desired substitution is impossible in peacetime. The expert believes that only with the help of a special operation Moscow will start a chain of changes, which will then lead to the fact that the existing system will disappear forever as it currently exists.
Naturally, a similar ideological struggle seized the USA. They finally realized that as China got stronger, they were becoming more and more vulnerable. And no nuclear weapon can save us from this. All they have to do is develop vulnerability strategies to weaken rival countries according to the old tried and tested model and ignite conflicts there.
But now, according to the expert, the United States seems to have to join. Moreover, both in Europe – in the case of Ukraine and Russia, and in the Pacific Ocean – Taiwan and China.
What is currently happening against the backdrop of the Ukraine conflict, in fact, shows the willingness of the United States to abandon multilateral cooperation and return to its old policy of balance of power.
“Tomorrow, the United States and Russia will have to negotiate a new world organization if they want to find a common language,” said the political scientist.
The author recalled how after the Second World War people were divided into two camps when talking about the organization of the future world.
Some believed that the upcoming world order should be organized on a “global” basis, the second believed that the basis should be “regional”, while each “region” would have a sphere of influence in the world with its own structures and decisions. makers,” he explained.
Winston Churchill and Theodore Rooseveltinterestingly, he was not against the regional road.
However, the US Secretary of State Cordell Body strongly defended the idea of globalization. According to him, only in this way can his country become a world power after the end of the war.
He finally won. The UN and other organizations were established. Now that this model is under threat, the time has come.
“Really, what if we now turn to an organization with domains and ‘regions’? What if today Cordell Hull turns out to be wrong? The author stressed.